The war in Iran has already affected the global system significantly. Things are happening around the edges that could be even more consequential.

On March 15-16, more than two weeks after the war began, delegations led by the U.S. Treasury secretary and the Chinese vice premier met in Paris, where they laid the groundwork for a broader understanding on economic and security matters, including on Taiwan. That the meeting took place at all suggests the war in Iran is not a significant obstacle to a U.S.-China detente. (The two sides had even suggested, and accepted, an alternate date.) This doesn’t mean a formal alliance is in the offing, but it does mean bilateral tensions presumably will be reduced. And even a modest accommodation would be a profound, if predictable, shift in the global geopolitical system, certainly more so than the future of Iran.

To be clear, Beijing publicly and sharply criticized the attacks on Iran, but so far it does not seem to have offered Tehran anything in the way of assistance. Russian media reported that China had been providing satellite intelligence, but no other intelligence service has corroborated those reports. Moscow’s claim could be the result of faulty intelligence, of course, but it could also be a sign that Russia, concerned as it is about a possible U.S.-China understanding, hoped to sow distrust between the two superpowers. This is speculation on my part, but it is a matter of fact that if an understanding were to materialize, Russia would be in a dangerous geopolitical situation.