In the long run of geopolitics, extremely unexpected things happen, such as the United States becoming the most powerful country in the world after World War II, which was 80 years after the end of the brutal Civil War and a very deep depression a decade earlier. What makes geopolitical forecasting fascinating is that over time it violates all the rules of common sense.

Who knows what country will emerge as a major power? Fifty years ago the idea of China becoming an economic giant was absurd. It’s possible that the Chinese might want to undermine the U.S. dollar and turn the yuan into the primary global currency on many levels, for economic reasons and the power of prestige. And if there was any chance to do so, this is the moment, when America seems to be evolving unpredictably. At the same time, China’s evolution is to a great extent unpredictable.

The U.S. has a history of becoming unpredictable and restabilizing. Consider Nixon’s decision to take the U.S. dollar off the gold standard. The dollar replaced the British pound as the core monetary measure as a result not only of economic growth but also of relative military power. The Chinese intention may well be to replace the dollar, and there might be a general sense that it could happen, but it would seem to me that dramatic changes in the reality of both the United States and China would be necessary for that to happen.

That would mean a massive global transformation as happened after the two world wars. So it is not intention, but relative power and stability of nations, that make for global currency. I personally don’t see such a fundamental, wrenching event to be likely, while a slow evolution of the system tends to value stability in key measures.